Winter Forecast 2010 - 2011

It is August already, a time when the winter forecasts are starting to trickle out by brave meteorologists who take a long shot at predicting snowfall amounts for the next six months. No longer are you dealing with short term weather models used for thunderstorms, but now you are dealing with long range weather models that track storms from the Pacific Ocean - all the way to Southern Ontario. Such examples of this would be the GFS model, the most accurate and up to date weather model out there............just kidding! Even the GFS can have a lot of fun taking people on emotional roller coasters. This model will predict a winter storm two weeks ahead for Southern Ontario, and then suddenly show this winter storm as a coastal blizzard, leaving Southern Ontario storm chasers reeling in amusement, and most times anger from all the false anticipation. I could go on and on about the weather models, but I'll cut to the chase. I have three winter storm forecasts that I would like to show you today. The first one will be done by Joe Bastardi, a well respected meteorologist; the second one will be done by Brett Anderson, a meteorologist who specializes in Canadian weather climate; the third one will be done by me, a meteo....well we won't get into that. Please scroll down for each individual map:
                                           
                                                                                     Joe Bastardi's Storm Track

                                                   

                                                                                     Brett Anderson's Storm Track

My Storm Track

 If we look at the first map, you will see that Joe Bastardi has a pretty realistic idea of the upcoming winter. This is what he says, " The Canadian winter will be harsh as last year's was gentle."

I agree with his idea of the 2010 - 2011 winter until it comes to his idea of snow for Washington DC and the surrounding areas. I think he has missed the possibility for some heavy snow in the Mid-Atlantic, which would be triggered by what we commonly know as the Alberta Clipper(see my map). Looking at history, an Alberta Clipper always intensifies after crossing the lower portion of the Great Lakes, and then sometimes increasingly intensifies after entering Virginia, due to warmer air from the south.

If we look at the next three maps by Brett Anderson, which predict the months of December, January, and February, you can see that Brett agrees with all of us about an active storm track for the western great lakes. I, however, do not agree with his prediction of an active storm track to the east during the month of December. It is to my belief, that December will be dry to the east because La~Nina conditions (Cooling of Pacific Ocean) will still be very weak by then. He doesn't agree with that, and believes that La~Nina conditions will already be in full force before December starts. In regards to that, I should mention that El~Nino(Warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equatorial line) is expected to fully dissipate during the next month or two.

I will sum it up with this, Southern Ontario will get some wet storms this year as we will be occasionally placed below the jetstream. Storms that start with rain, ice, and snow will not be uncommon for Southern Ontario this winter. The temperature will be above average for some of the regions in Southern Ontario, with a pretty large thaw taking place during middle to late January. The active storm track will stay west of Southern Ontario, with a few storms coming up along the east coast. Alberta Clippers will definitely not be uncommon for Southern Ontario, however the snow amounts will most likely stay below 10 - 15 centimeters.

I would like to mention one more possibility that might take place during February and March 2011. If you noticed, I have the Alberta Clipper track further south then most meteorologists would have it. In my opinion, the La~Nina could strengthen considerably by February or March, causing the jet stream to dip further south. If that happens, Southern Ontario could see more Alberta Clippers and possible colder air. This would not change my snow predictions for Southern Ontario due to the fact that Alberta Clippers don't usually deliver large amounts of snow.  A more indeph look at the winter forecast will take place closer towards the month of November.